GPT-5's flawed release and high-profile comments by OpenAI leadership stirred skepticism about AI hype. A sweeping MIT survey found that 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing, fueling investor concern and a tech sell-off that erased about $1 trillion from the S&P 500. AI-heavy tech stocks drove worries of a dotcom-style bubble, though Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole remarks later helped markets recover. Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus has warned since 2019 about LLM limits and since 2023 about a potential bubble and economics; Marcus rejects the Cassandra label, describing himself as a realist who foresaw problems.
First it was the release of GPT-5 that OpenAI " totally screwed up," according to Sam Altman. Then Altman followed that up by saying the B-word at a dinner with reporters. "When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth," The Verge reported on comments by the OpenAI CEO. Then it was the sweeping MIT survey that put a number on what so many people seem to be feeling: a whopping 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing.
Gary Marcus has been warning of the limits of large language models (LLMs) since 2019 and warning of a potential bubble and problematic economics since 2023. His words carry a particularly distinctive weight. The cognitive scientist turned longtime AI researcher has been active in the machine learning space since 2015, when he founded Geometric Intelligence. That company was acquired by Uber in 2016, and Marcus left shortly afterward, working at other AI startups.
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