"Evans structures technology history in cycles. Every 10-15 years, the industry reorganizes around a new platform: mainframes (1960s-70s), PCs (1980s), web (1990s), smartphones (2000s-2010s). Each shift pulls all innovation, investment, and company creation into its orbit. Generative AI appears to be the next platform shift, or it could break the cycle entirely. The range of outcomes spans from "just more software" to a single unified intelligence that handles everything. The pattern recognition is smart, but I think the current evidence points more clearly toward commoditization than Evans suggests, with value flowing up the stack rather than to model providers."
"But I think here's where Evans' "we don't know" approach misses something important. Consulting firms are booking billions in AI contracts right now. Accenture alone expects $3 billion in GenAI bookings for fiscal 2025. The revenue isn't coming from the models. It's coming from integration projects, change management, and process redesign."
Technology repeatedly reorganizes every 10–15 years around a dominant platform, such as mainframes, PCs, the web, and smartphones. Generative AI could become the next platform or break the cycle, producing outcomes from incremental software improvements to a unified intelligence. Historical pattern shows that automations that work are absorbed into ordinary software, suggesting LLMs may commoditize over time. Commercial activity today shows large consulting contracts and vendor-led integration, with revenue driven by deployment, change management, and process redesign rather than by model sales. Value is therefore likely to flow up the stack into applications and services that integrate models.
Read at philippdubach.com
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