Generative-AI companies claim extraordinary progress with models like GPT-4.5 and Gemini, but there's growing concern that advancements are slowing down. This is alarming, as significant investments are tied to these technologies' anticipated progress. The central challenge lies in measuring AI's ability to generalize knowledge, a key aspect of intelligent reasoning. Industry-standard benchmark tests are often cited by companies to validate improvements, yet these tests do not adequately capture true advancements in AI capabilities.
Generative AI companies claim their models are advancing impressively, but evidence shows progress may be slowing, raising doubts about how much smarter they can really get.
Tests meant to measure generative AI's advancements are proving ineffective, complicating our understanding of whether these models are indeed learning and generalizing better.
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