"The piece, titled The Adolescence of Technology and published on Amodei's personal blog, contained a number of warnings Amodei has issued before. But, in the essay, Amodei used slightly starker language and mentioned shorter timelines for some of AI's potential risks than he has in the past. What's actually notable and new about Amodei's essay is some of the solutions he proposes to these risks."
"One thing Amodei said in his essay is that 50% of entry level white collar jobs will be eliminated within one to five years due to AI. He said the same thing at Davos last week. But, talking to C-suite leaders there, I got the sense that few of them concur with Amodei's prognostication. Amodei has been off about the rate at which technology diffuses into non-AI companies before."
"Last year, he projected that up to 90% of code would be AI-written by the end of 2025. It seems that this was, in fact, true for Anthropic itself. But it was not true for most companies. Even at other software companies, the amount of AI-written code has been between 25% and 40%. So Amodei may have a skewed sense for how quickly non-tech companies are actually able to adopt technology."
A prominent AI leader warns of shorter timelines for catastrophic AI risks and proposes solutions to address those risks. A prediction states that 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated within one to five years because of AI. C-suite leaders in Davos expressed skepticism about such rapid displacement. Prior projections about the pace of AI-written code were accurate for one company but significantly overstated industry-wide adoption, with other firms reporting 25–40% AI-written code. The narrative notes that AI may create new jobs and mentions continued industry moves, including Nvidia investing again and research mapping model personality sources.
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