"That's according to Ioana Marinescu, an associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Social Policy & Practice and coauthor of a new Brookings Institution paper on what she and colleague Konrad Kording call " intelligence saturation." Their model suggests that as automation spreads, wages are likely to follow a hump-shaped trajectory - initially rising, then flattening, and eventually declining as machines take over more of the cognitive work that humans once performed. However, that downturn isn't inevitable."
"a figure based on research showing that routine cognitive jobs have declined from 49% in the late 1970s and 1980s to 35% in 2018. "This is closer to a potential decline in wages than no automation," she told Business Insider. In the baseline Brookings simulation, wages begin to fall when about 37% of intelligence tasks are automated - a threshold that could arrive sooner than many expect if AI adoption continues to accelerate."
A model of intelligence saturation predicts that automation causes wages to follow a hump-shaped path: rising at first, then flattening, and eventually declining as machines replace more cognitive work. More than 14% of intelligence tasks are estimated to be automated already, based on long-term declines in routine cognitive jobs from 49% to 35% by 2018. In the baseline simulation, wages begin to fall when about 37% of intelligence tasks are automated. The downturn is not inevitable if AI adoption occurs alongside sustained investment in the physical sector. Early evidence shows some displacement among less-experienced workers in AI-exposed roles.
Read at Business Insider
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