Payroll data from ADP covering late 2022 through mid-2025 show generative AI adoption coincided with reduced job opportunities for younger workers in vulnerable sectors. Customer service and software development exhibited a 16 percent employment decline for workers aged 22 to 25. More experienced employees in those industries saw employment remain flat or grow slightly, indicating insulation from displacement. Some occupations expected to be vulnerable, such as translation, experienced job increases. Relative unemployment for young graduates had been declining since around 2009, complicating attribution solely to AI. The overall pattern links AI impact more to experience and expertise than job category.
Economists at Stanford University have found the strongest evidence yet that artificial intelligence is starting to eliminate certain jobs. But the story isn't that simple: While younger workers are being replaced by AI in some industries, more experienced workers are seeing new opportunities emerge. Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at Stanford University, Ruyu Chen, a research scientist, and Bharat Chandar, a postgraduate student, examined data from ADP, the largest payroll provider in the US, from late 2022, when ChatGPT debuted, to mid-2025.
The researchers discovered several strong signals in the data-most notably that the adoption of generative AI coincided with a decrease in job opportunities for younger workers in sectors previously identified as particularly vulnerable to AI-powered automation (think customer service and software development). In these industries, they found a 16 percent decline in employment for workers aged 22 to 25. The new study reveals a nuanced picture of AI's impact on labor.
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