Logan Kilpatrick believes that aiming straight for artificial superintelligence (ASI) is becoming increasingly likely, especially due to advancements in scaling test-time compute. He suggests this path might lead to capabilities beyond human intelligence across all tasks.
Kilpatrick highlights that the journey to artificial general intelligence (AGI) might resemble a product release rather than a singular explosive breakthrough, indicating a gradual evolution rather than an abrupt arrival.
There is growing evidence that pre-training AI has plateaued, prompting new research directions aimed at enhancing AI models through human-like reasoning processes, as demonstrated by Google's and OpenAI's latest models.
Kilpatrick points out that Ilya Sutskever, cofounder of OpenAI, may have recognized early indications of the benefits associated with scaling test-time compute, potentially reshaping AI's development pathway.
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