"To rebuild herds, ranchers must hold on to heifers rather than sending them out to meat processors. There are signs of that happening, but that also means beef supply will shrink in the near term, Rempe warned. "So we are headed for what I'm calling the $10-a-pound reality by third quarter of '26," he predicted. "Families are going to see $10-a-pound ground beef in the grocery store.""
"According to the latest consumer price index data, the average price of ground beef was $6.323 a pound in September. That's up 14% since January and 26% from January 2024. If ground beef hits $10 a pound, the price would represent a 58% surge from September's level. On Friday, Trump announced that he's scrapping tariffs on beef, coffee, and a range of other commodities. But non-tariff factors are driving beef's price spike."
"Droughts, high interest rates, and expensive feed have combined to shrink the U.S. cattle herd sharply. At the same time, demand for protein is also soaring and is even showing up in Starbucks lattes. Wesley Batista, who shares control of the $15 billion meat-packing behemoth JBS, said last month the U.S. needs to import more product from abroad to meet its insatiable demand. That includes supply from Brazil and Argentina."
U.S. beef supply is tightening as the national cattle herd sits at 70-year lows while consumer demand reaches record levels. Ranchers are retaining heifers to rebuild herds, which reduces animals available for slaughter and shrinks near-term beef supply. Ground beef averaged $6.323 per pound in September, up 14% since January and 26% year-over-year; a $10-per-pound price would equal roughly a 58% increase from that September level. Drought, high interest rates, and costly feed have depressed herd sizes. Imports from Brazil and Argentina can help, but Argentina supplies only about 2% of U.S. beef, so domestic production remains crucial.
Read at Fortune
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