#economic-outlook

#economic-outlook

The UK economy returned to growth in November, expanding by 0.3 per cent after contracting in the month leading up to the autumn budget, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. The increase in GDP exceeded economists' expectations of a modest 0.1 per cent rise and suggests that economic activity proved more resilient than many sentiment surveys had indicated in the run-up to the budget on 26 November.

Deloitte's Q4 2025 CFO Signals report, released this morning, finds the CFO Confidence Score at 6.6, higher than the Q3 reading of 5.7, and the highest score since late 2021. The score, the highest 10, measures CFO confidence in economic conditions and sentiment about the capital markets. CFOs raised their assessment of the North American economy this quarter, with 36% rating the current environment as very good or good, and 56% saying they expect it to be much better or better in 12 months.

Well, look, I think everyone can see in the last year that the world has changed, and we're not immune to that change. Whether it is wars in Europe and the Middle East, whether it is increased barriers to trade because of tariffs coming from the United States, whether it is the global cost of borrowing, we're not immune to any of those things.

Stocks have notched two consecutive weekly gains, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high last week, as corporate earnings have continued to come in strong.

Gold prices have been trading sideways for almost three months, with slight declines as risk appetite improved, suggesting potential changes in investor sentiment.

Altria has a yield of 6.4%, making it one of the highest among major US companies, alongside Dow and Pfizer. However, Pfizer's stock is down 8% this year and Dow's has plummeted by 47%, with a recent dividend cut.

In July, California's consumer confidence rose 2% from June, marking only the second monthly improvement since Trump's election. The index still remains 25% off from its October high.

To put it plainly, what I see tells me the oilfield services market will be softer than I previously expected over the short to medium term. Oil producers and countries are cutting back spending more dramatically than current oil prices would normally necessitate.

Investor sentiment in Germany rose more than expected in July, with the ZEW survey indicating a 5.2 points increase, reaching its highest level since February 2022.

U.S. stock futures dropped as Trump's threats of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico prompted investors to reconsider trade war risks, with markets poised for declines.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance announced on Saturday their decision to increase oil output in August by 548,000 barrels per day.

"Consumer prices rose by 0.9 percent in France in June compared to the same month last year, up from 0.7 percent in May, according to the INSEE statistics agency."

The US Dollar index remained near multi-year lows as geopolitical tensions eased and investor sentiment improved, indicating a shift in safe-haven demand.

"We're definitely seeing a softer summer for Hawaii travel compared to last year," Bruce Fisher, Hawaii travel adviser and owner of Hawaii Aloha Travel, told SFGATE in an email.

The holding companies for banks such as Bridgewater Bancshares and Heartland Bank and Trust Company mentioned deportations may affect their 'forward looking statements' but weren't clear on the outcomes.

The recovery of the NGX All Share Index amidst geopolitical tensions suggests potential for Nigeria's export receipts, but concerns about sustainability linger.

The Resolution Foundation warned that Reeves could be forced into further tax increases to maintain higher levels of spending, emphasizing the need for fiscal caution.

"There are now clear trends in the data, not just vague signs, that even if the train is chugging forward, more and more people are getting left behind at the station," Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed, wrote in a note.