#labor-market

#labor-market

Consumers have taken notice of the many challenges facing the economy; weakening labor conditions, the inflationary impact of tariffs, changes to the tax code, and a reprioritization of fiscal policy are all among the catalysts defining the outlook,

It's not that Americans or the data are wrong - consumers do have legitimate concerns. It's that some of the financial pressures people are feeling, like increased financing costs for auto loans or closing costs on home mortgages, don't necessarily show up in the major datasets like the Consumer Price Index,

The August jobs report showed a further cooling of the labor market in 2025 and is consistent with what many businesses have been saying since the spring: It's tough to operate and plan for future hiring under a cloud of tariff-related uncertainty, high interest rates, and mercurial consumers, who may retrench their spending. As a result, many companies have put hiring plans on hold, though there is no evidence of widespread layoffs permeating throughout the broader economy.

As expected, inflation ticked slightly higher during August with rising housing, food and energy costs leading the way. Core inflation however remained stable, ensuring a rate cut in September is now a forgone conclusion. The Federal reserve having been in wait and see mode since December 2024 has been given the green light today to cut rates. Inflation has not seen large upside surprises from tariff turmoil and with recent revisions to jobs data showing almost 1 million fewer jobs than previously thought,

Most economists believe the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week after recent data revealed a labor market that's been softening for longer than previously thought. While inflation also remains stubbornly above the U.S. central banks 2% target and is forecast to have risen again in August, Fed officials have increasingly expressed concern about a slowing U.S. job market.

New labor data showing shrinking job opportunities and increased unemployment has perhaps stoked the fears of wealthier Americans more than their lower-income compatriots. The New York Federal Reserve's August 2025Survey of Consumer Expectations found Americans earning more than $100,000 more often believe unemployment will rise in the next year compared to those earning less. Increased pessimism may be a result of fears that white-collar jobs are being impacted by the rocky economic and political environment.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows hiring for the 12 months ending in March was overstated by an estimated 911,000 jobs. That large revision was somewhat expected, but still on the high end of what both economists and White House officials predicted. In a research note published Sunday, economists at Goldman Sachs predicted that the revision would be between 550,000 and 950,000 jobs.

The dismal August jobs report confirmed the labor market cooled significantly during the spring and summer. That coincided with the start of President Donald Trump's trade war. While some tariff-impacted industries have seen minimal changes in payrolls, others like manufacturing and wholesale trade have taken bigger hits. Since President Donald Trump launched his trade war earlier this year, industries impacted by tariffs have shed tens of thousands of jobs.

The latest jobs report revealed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August with revisions to prior months showing June actually saw a decline. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to a four-year high of 4.3%. In a note on Saturday, Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, observed that job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is negative. Manufacturers alone cut 12,000 workers last month.

The 'manufacturing recession' - underway for years - got uglier. The sector lost 12,000 jobs in August, the fourth consecutive month of shrinking employment. The industry had 78,000 fewer workers last month, relative to the same period a year ago. Construction shed jobs for the third straight month. Wholesale trade - a sector that includes transportation, warehouse staff and material handlers - has lost 32,000 workers since May.

Driving the news: Friday's jobs data confirmed that the weak hiring that became clear in last month's report was no head-fake. The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, with health care among the few sectors with increasing employment. The intrigue: Once again, the real stunner came in the revisions, which showed the economy's 53-month-long streak of jobs growth ended in May.

From chronic struggles with burnout to a pragmatic, even skeptical take on how to lead their careers, the generation that entered the workforce during the age of quiet quitting has come to exemplify the quarter-life crisis. But what if this is the new norm, and the midlife crisis is going extinct the way other trappings of the 20th century have, like dial-up internet and Kodak film? What if Gen Z has giant, macroeconomically valid reasons for being plunged into a collective quarter-life crisis?

Two hundred and twenty-nine thousand, once again, just dovetails right in. I think the most important issue is we have 250,000 right on the nose on the first week in June. You have to go to October of last year to find a number above 250,000, so it's hard for me to get worried about this; and if this is considered the best real-time evaluation of the labor market, there's no issues that it's sending.

There's not going to be a swift return to the near-zero interest rate environment of recent years, Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, tells Axios. The central bank's neutral rate will look more like that of the 1980s and 1990s. The market may need to "recalibrate everything to acknowledge that rates are likely to remain at higher levels," she says. The market is not priced for that right now, she adds.