"Fresh food and perishables are almost like the canary in the coal mine," when energy prices go up, according to Vidya Mani, an associate professor at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business.
What we're seeing in the U.S., including higher prices, smaller sizes and less cocoa in some products, reflects longer-term adjustments. Prices are likely to stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold.
High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.
Costco was found to be 21.4% less expensive than Walmart on average, making it the lowest-priced grocery retailer in the US, even cheaper than Aldi and BJ's Wholesale Club.
"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.
Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.
On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in December. Year-over-year the all-items index was up 2.7%, the same as it was in November. Shelter was the main contributor to the all-items index's monthly increase, rising 0.4% from a month prior. Other major contributors included the food index, which rose 0.7% and the energy index, which jumped 0.3%.
Employers added a healthy 130,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said this week, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The caveat? That announcement came with revisions that showed job creation flatlined over the last year, with only 15,000 jobs being added per month on average. Service sectors like finance and professional services that normally power the creation of high-paying office positions have instead been shedding jobs, perhaps reflecting employers' anticipation of AI-related cost savings.