#us-labour-market

#us-labour-market

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, the central bank said in its release announcing the decision. Wednesday's decision was widely expected. CME FedWatch, a tool that tracks expectations for monetary policy, forecast a more than 97 percent chance that the central bank would hold rates steady.

The US dollar traded near multi-week highs on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM Services data that helped offset concerns triggered earlier in the week by weak manufacturing figures. The ISM Services PMI rose well above expectations of 52.3 points. The report signalled the strongest expansion in the services sector since October 2024, with all subcomponents back in expansion territory for the first time since February. Notably, the employment index rebounded to 52 from 48.9, easing fears of a sharper labour market slowdown.

On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance. Although the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, initial jobless claims remain very low (199k), indicating that the U.S. labour market continues to demonstrate resilience. At the same time, inflation (2.7%) - while easing from its peak - has yet to return sustainably to the Fed's target range.

Bitcoin eased back toward USD 110,000 on Thursday, pausing after three strong sessions supported by heavy ETF inflows. US spot funds added USD 300 million on Wednesday following USD 330 million the previous day. Market liquidations over 24 hours were balanced, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of US labour market data. Today's ADP report is expected to show a 65,000 increase in jobs, down sharply from 104,000 last month, following weaker JOLTs data earlier in the week.