#mid-cycle-correction

#mid-cycle-correction

The most senior officials from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are expected to take part in a desktop stress test to respond to another Lehman Brothers-style collapse.

"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."

Elevated oil levels are reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain sticky, reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, weighing on gold in the process. ETF outflows over recent weeks reinforce this shift in sentiment, and could weigh on the market if they continue.

Capital Southwest is an internally managed BDC that provides loans to lower-middle-market companies and earns interest on those loans. It borrows at lower rates, lends at higher rates, and passes the spread through to shareholders as income.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.

In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.

Warsh served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest person ever appointed to that role at age 35. During the 2008 financial crisis, he was part of Ben Bernanke's inner circle and served as an intermediary with Wall Street. He negotiated survival plans for firms like Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). He later resigned from the Fed due to disagreements over its balance sheet expansion policies.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

Well, Kate, look, this is some encouraging news on the cost of living, right? Inflation took a big step in the right direction to start the year off, replied Egan. So consumer prices up by 2.4% year-over-year. That is an improvement from 2.7% in December that beat expectations which were for 2.5%. In fact, this a new, eight-month low for annual inflation, month-over-month. Prices up by 0.2%, also a step in the right direction, also beating expectation.