#labor market

#labor market

The reason mortgage rates are near yearly lows as we end the year is that the labor market has softened and mortgage spreads have returned to near-normal levels. Without these two variables, mortgage rates would have stayed higher for longer. My 2026 forecast is for the 10-year yield to range between 3.80% and 4.60%, and for mortgage rates to range from 5.75% to 6.75%.

She shared a segment from her show on social media and wrote, If I had to summarize the first year of President Trump's second term in one word, it would be: dignity. From his foreign policy to his domestic policy to his immigration policy, the goal has been restoring the dignity of the forgotten working-class men & women of this country.

After years of wartime splurging, Russian shoppers are tightening their grip on their wallets - a shift that hints at growing stress in the country's economy. Growth in consumer spending has weakened across most regions, the Central Bank of Russia said in a report published Wednesday. In October and November, demand softened even as unemployment remained near historic lows and inflation expectations ticked higher.

As a result, many are wondering what the relationship is between AI's rise and labor's stagnation. While economists like Daron Acemoglu argue that any impact AI has on workers won't be felt for a decade - if it comes at all - tech CEOs are telling a different story: that AI is about to flip our whole world upside down.

New economic analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals a bifurcated picture of artificial intelligence's (AI) impact on the workforce, finding that while the technology's role in current layoffs remains modest and unproven across the broader economy, companies focusing on AI in their workforce discussions have sharply curtailed their job openings this year. The findings, drawn from an analysis of Q3 corporate earnings commentary and results by senior economist Ronnie Walker, were drawn from management commentary and results across nearly all the S&P 500.

When describing the health of the US economy, there is a temptation among economists, market analysts, and politicians to argue that the only true picture of our current situation is a sweeping portrait - only by looking at the broadest of aggregate statistics can you determine the state of play, they argue. But the wide view can ignore important developments unfolding under the surface. Sometimes, even the healthiest-looking person might have high cholesterol.

These relatively steady rate movements seem to be in line with market expectations following the Federal Reserve's 25-bps cut to benchmark rates late last month. The cut was widely anticipated and baked into the rates offered by most mortgage lenders well in advance. We've seen this rhythm before: rates fall in anticipation of a Fed cut, rise slightly following the announcement due to cautious messaging, and then stabilize or trend down again as economic data unfolds, said Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage.