#fed-rate-cuts

#fed-rate-cuts

Employers added 178,000 jobs last month, much more than forecasters had expected, reversing big job losses in February and indicating a rebound in the labor market.

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

September, or more likely October, is now the realistic opportunity for a rate cut, and even that is far from guaranteed. The data coming through is not consistent with easing in July. In fact, it points in the opposite direction. Inflation is not falling fast enough. The latest wholesale inflation data shows prices rising at 3.4% year-on-year, the strongest pace in a year, and core measures are still running close to 4%.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain, the central bank said in a statement announcing its policy decision and referring to its Federal Open Market Committee.

The dominant force in play remains the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and inflation expectations firm. Reports that Washington is assembling a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could offer some relief for the oil market and could weigh on the dollar.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in December. Year-over-year the all-items index was up 2.7%, the same as it was in November. Shelter was the main contributor to the all-items index's monthly increase, rising 0.4% from a month prior. Other major contributors included the food index, which rose 0.7% and the energy index, which jumped 0.3%.

The two precious metals, the most classic of the "safe-haven" assets, have the tangibility and inherent scarcity to act a hedge in moments of turmoil, particularly when investors worry that politics or policy could undermine the value of the dollar or U.S. government bonds. That is why the metals' relentless rally to record highs since late last year-Gold is up 84% year-over-year and silver up a whopping 245% - has drawn attention from analysts.