#bank-profits

#bank-profits

"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."

The US dollar returned to the upside as geopolitical fears rebounded after US President Trump's address to the nation. The rhetoric fuelled risk aversion and flows toward the dollar while oil prices surged.

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remained tense after renewed threats to Iranian infrastructure from President Donald Trump, although reports of a potential deal could limit the demand for the dollar.

No matter who you are, you need to deal with reality and the truth. The truth is that while New York City has much going for it, particularly for financial companies, it also has the highest city and state corporate taxes and the highest individual income and state taxes.

In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.

The current pressure is largely driven by tensions in the Middle East, as signals from the U.S. and Iran remain conflicting. While the U.S. has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, Iran has firmly denied any talks, increasing uncertainty around the prospects of de-escalation.