The fallacy of unwarranted confidence occurs when individuals confidently draw conclusions from statistical data that is unknown, asserting claims that lack sufficient backing.
Unknown statistical data can stem from educated guesses based on limited information, such as estimating drug usage or war casualties, which reflects the inevitable uncertainty in these areas.
Drawing conclusions from unknown data is not inherently fallacious; rather, it is the overconfidence in the conclusions that leads to the fallacy, disregarding the limitations of the evidence.
Congressional estimation of those who evade taxes exemplifies this fallacy, where the unknown nature of the data prompts overly confident assertions regarding taxpayer behavior.
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