"A client came to see me after what she described as "three hours of hell." Her sister had left a voicemail that sounded "off"-the tone was different somehow, clipped maybe, or strained. My client's mind immediately jumped to the worst: someone in the family must have died. She spent the rest of her afternoon constructing elaborate scenarios, planning what she'd say at the funeral, worrying about how her elderly mother would cope."
"Conjecture (C): Pure speculation, gut reactions, "what if" thoughts. This is our fastest, most immediate response to limited information. It operates on impressions, shadows, reflections-not reality itself. Opinion (O): What you believe based on personal experience, values, or limited information. This is more stable than conjecture but still subjective, shaped by your particular perspective and history. Logic (L): Evidence-based reasoning, facts you can verify, step-by-step arguments. This moves beyond personal perspective to what can be demonstrated and tested."
A vague sensory impression can trigger rapid, catastrophic mental simulations that escalate into prolonged worry and imagined scenarios. Emotional responses often treat conjecture with the urgency reserved for verified facts, producing unnecessary distress. A four-level model—Conjecture, Opinion, Logic, Abstraction—helps distinguish speculation from belief, evidence, and guiding principles. Conjecture involves immediate "what if" thoughts; Opinion reflects subjective beliefs; Logic relies on verifiable evidence and reasoning; Abstraction encompasses core principles that guide decisions. Each level serves a purpose. Problems arise when lower-level conjectures are elevated into higher-level certainties instead of being reclassified and tested against evidence.
Read at Psychology Today
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