Winter is Coming to Ukraine as it Faces a New Kind of War and Uncertainty About a Key Ally

"The major sticking point among Western partners remains what concessions Ukraine might be asked to make. Washington has floated the idea of Kyiv giving up some territory Russia has not yet taken, a suggestion Ukraine rejects and most European leaders fear would reward Russian aggression. Zelensky has signaled a willingness for Ukraine to pause its bid to join NATO if the U.S. provides firm security guarantees against future Russian attacks. European leaders are generally supportive of a deal that allows Ukraine to keep the territory it currently controls while securing long-term protection from Washington."

"Corn: The mood in Ukraine is not great. The Ukrainians are very concerned about a number of issues. One, they feel a lot of pressure from the U.S. to make a deal, which many Ukrainians are confused about. They're trying to understand what's going on. And of course, they're not pleased with their own internal political situation. The Operation Midas corruption scandal was a blow, so there's a lot swirling around and it's clearly impacting the people that we spoke with. They're trying to keep a brave face, given what they're facing. They've been at war since 2014, and since February 2022, they've been in a horrific war, a full scale war, and they're just trying to keep their nose above water right now. And as one Ukrainian officer told me, we just have to get through the winter and survive these dark times."

Western partners remain divided over whether Ukraine should concede territory, with U.S. proposals suggesting Kyiv give up areas not yet seized by Russia and Ukraine rejecting such moves. Zelensky indicated willingness to pause NATO membership ambitions if the United States provides firm security guarantees against future Russian attacks. European leaders generally favor an arrangement that preserves territory currently under Ukrainian control while securing long-term U.S. protection. Public sentiment in Ukraine is bleak amid war fatigue, internal political scandals such as Operation Midas, and perceived pressure from the U.S.; officials emphasize surviving the winter and maintaining resilience.

Read at The Cipher Brief