"The U.S. mission to seize Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has pushed the concept of regime change back into everyday conversation. "Regime Change in America's Back Yard," declared The New Yorker in a piece that typified the response to the Jan. 3 operation that saw Maduro exchange a compound in Caracas for a jail in Brooklyn. Commentators and politicians have been using the term as shorthand for removing Maduro and ending Venezuela's crisis, as if the two were essentially the same thing."
"A more technical removal Regime change, as it is understood by most foreign policy analysts, refers to efforts by external actors to force a deep transformation of another state's system of rule. The aim is to reshape who holds authority and how power is exercised by changing the structure and institutions of political power, rather than a government's policies or even its personnel."
U.S. actions against President Nicolás Maduro revived talk of regime change but replacing a leader does not automatically equal regime change. Regime change entails an external actor forcing a deep transformation of a state's system of rule, altering who holds authority and how power is exercised by changing institutions and political structures. Maduro's removal and replacement by a deputy would not by itself meet that threshold, though external pressure could shape the successor's behavior. The Chavismo ideology that underpinned Maduro's rule could persist despite personnel changes. Distinguishing leader removal from systemic transformation clarifies the stakes for Venezuela's future.
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