Diplomatic meetings have not eased the conflict outlook as many Ukrainians and foreign fighters intend to keep fighting. Leaders seeking quick resolutions overlook entrenched opposition and post-war social consequences. Russia needs a deliverable that can be portrayed as total victory to avoid domestic backlash, with historical precedents showing wars triggering revolutions. Regime survival is a central concern for Moscow. The return of over a million battle-hardened soldiers, including former prisoners with trauma and behavioral problems, will strain Russian society, which lacks mechanisms to manage a crisis of that magnitude. Ukraine faces parallel risks of disenfranchised fighters rejecting ceasefires.
As the Russian author, Eduard Topol, pointed out on August 11, there is precedent in Russia for a violent overthrow in the aftermath of wars: the return of Russian troops from Europe after the victory over France led to the anti-tsarist uprising in 1825; Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War led to the 1905 Revolution; the desertion of a million Russian soldiers from the Russo-German front during World War I forced Emperor Nicholas II to abdicate and resulted in the February Revolution of 1917;
While regime change is probably Putin's central concern, even if a ceasefire occurs on favorable terms (for Russia) what will Russia do with more than a million Russian soldiers, many of whom are former prisoners, returning from the Ukrainian front with post-traumatic trauma and other behavioral issues? The effect will be devastating for Russian society, which has little or no mechanisms for dealing with a crisis on this scale.
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