"The US president's formidable arsenal cannot summon up an insurrection from Iran's tyrannised and leaderless opposition. It cannot force merchant ships to run a gauntlet of missile and drone attacks in the strait of Hormuz. The government in Tehran and the facts of geography that give it leverage over global trade are unchanged."
"He is burning dollars and haemorrhaging prestige every day that the Islamic Republic constricts the flow of oil and gas to the global economy. American consumers will not be protected by their country's status as an energy exporter. The prices they pay at the pump and for pretty much everything else, given the ubiquity of hydrocarbon derivatives in manufacturing and agriculture track the global oil market."
"For the Iranian leadership, survival now counts as a kind of victory. For Benjamin Netanyahu, a friendlier regime in Iran was desirable, but a hostile one whose capacity to menace Israel has been reduced to rubble is an acceptable second-choice outcome. But that is not adequate compensation to Trump."
Trump's military strike on Iran intended to showcase American military dominance instead exposed significant strategic vulnerabilities. The US arsenal cannot suppress Iran's opposition or prevent Iranian threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's geographic position gives it substantial leverage over global trade and oil supplies, which remains unchanged. Trump's frustration is evident as he pressures NATO allies for naval support and urges tanker crews to navigate dangerous waters. While the operation may satisfy some Israeli interests, it fails to address Trump's core objectives. Rising oil prices threaten American consumers and undermine Trump's inflation-fighting narrative, as global hydrocarbon markets directly impact domestic prices across manufacturing and agriculture.
#us-iran-conflict #military-strategy #global-oil-markets #strategic-miscalculation #economic-consequences
Read at www.theguardian.com
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