The Window to Declare Victory Is Closing

"Initially, Trump saw his Venezuela operation as the template for Iran. He imagined that he would make a deal with someone inside the regime who would work pragmatically with him and maybe cut the United States in on the oil. But the Islamic Republic proved more aggressive and more resilient than he had anticipated."

"Trump has set the stage for this outcome. He has repeatedly insisted that the war is 'already won' and 'very complete.' He told Fox News that he would choose to end the conflict when 'I feel it in my bones.' But the longer the war continues, the harder sustaining the claim that the United States is winning will become."

"The United States and Israel have destroyed much of Iran's navy and air force, as well as many of its missile systems. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed. Yet the costs of the conflict are mounting. Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and is denying access to allied tankers."

Trump initially approached the Iran situation using a Venezuela-style template, expecting to find pragmatic regime insiders willing to deal. However, Iran proved more aggressive and resilient than anticipated, striking regional allies despite administration surprise. As the conflict intensifies, Trump's strategy of declaring victory and withdrawing without a formal agreement becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. While the U.S. and Israel achieved military successes including destroying Iranian naval and air capabilities and killing Ayatollah Khamenei, costs mount significantly. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices near $100 per barrel, and leadership transitions to Mojtaba Khamenei. The window for an easy exit rapidly closes as continued conflict undermines claims of American victory.

Read at The Atlantic