The Pentagon Knows the True Threat of Climate Denialism. Too Bad They Can't Do Anything About It.

U.S. agencies assessed climate-driven instability across Europe and East Africa while developing a coordinated whole-of-government approach to climate security. The intelligence and defense communities relied on predictive modeling, open-source information, and third-party climate analysis, supported by interagency coordination to anticipate and prepare for future risks. The Pentagon’s concerns extended beyond logistical impacts such as rising seas affecting the Navy, and included monitoring political ramifications with profound effects. After executive orders signed by President Biden, the Department of Defense conducted Elliptic Thunder, its first climate and environmental security tabletop exercise, using an East Africa scenario to test planning and responses.

"The reports shed light on how the intelligence community, the Pentagon, and other U.S. agencies assessed climate-driven instability across Europe and East Africa while attempting to develop a coordinated "whole-of-government" approach to climate security. The documents also reveal the extent to which the intelligence and defense communities rely on predictive modeling, open-source and third-party climate analysis, and interagency coordination to anticipate and prepare for future risks."

"Now, from this report, we learn that the Pentagon's concerns went beyond what you might expect, like the logistical damage to the Navy due to rising seas, and that the State Department was monitoring the political ramifications, and that they were profound."

"Two months after Biden signed the EO, the DOD conducted Elliptic Thunder, its first-ever climate and environmental security tabletop exercise. In a post-exercise "Quick Look" (Document 1), the DOD's J8-Studies, Analysis, and Gaming Division said that Elliptic Thunder had used an "East Africa vignette," reflecti"

Read at Esquire