The ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has become increasingly violent, with tensions mounting following India's military actions against what it claims are terrorist infrastructures in response to a massacre in Kashmir. While both nations aim to avoid full-scale war, miscalculations remain a serious risk due to their nuclear capabilities. Political pressures in both countries exacerbate the situation; Modi's narrative of Kashmir's normalcy stands at odds with increasing violence, while Pakistan's military struggles with unpopularity and regional narratives of Kashmir as vital. The diminished U.S. diplomatic role complicates potential de-escalation efforts.
This is not a judgment that can be made unilaterally. Pakistan said India was igniting an inferno and that its military is authorised to take corresponding actions.
In India, Narendra Modi's success is built on his identity as a Hindu nationalist strongman, and he is under intense pressure regarding Kashmir's normalcy.
The massacre was claimed by the Resistance Front, regarded by India as a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. Islamabad denies any link, but the military's connections with militant groups are opaque.
India is becoming increasingly blunt about attributing blame. In the past, the US has pushed the two sides to de-escalate, but now has less diplomatic capacity.
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