The Bloody Lesson the Ayatollah Took from the Shah

"On November 6, 1978, while riots raged throughout Tehran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, addressed the nation in a rhetoric of conciliation. "I have heard the voice of your revolution," he said. The Shah promised to correct the regime's mistakes, liberate political prisoners, call parliamentary elections, investigate the corruption in his midst, and ease the crackdown on dissent against a nationwide opposition."

"But, as had happened so often in the history of brittle regimes, the dictator's gesture of conciliation was read as desperation. In a village outside Paris, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini consistently attacked the Shah with derision. The "despotic regime of the Shah" was weak, he had said earlier, and was "drawing its last breaths." And now, despite the Shah's speech in Tehran, there could be no compromise."

"The current leader of the Islamic regime, Khomeini's successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is eighty-six. He is one of the longest-reigning dictators on the planet. He is keenly aware of the story of the decline and fall of the old regime. And now, with the Islamic Republic facing dramatic demonstrations in dozens of cities across Iran, Khamenei is faced with a dilemma not unlike the Shah's. With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other instruments of force as his bludgeon, Khamenei has chosen bloodshed over conciliation. The regime's attempt to shut down the internet and other means of communication has dramatically slowed reporting, yet human-rights groups say that Iranian authorities have already killed as many as two hundred demonstrators."

A historical parallel is drawn between the Shah's failed conciliatory gestures in 1978 and the current crisis faced by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mass demonstrations have erupted across dozens of Iranian cities, presenting a dilemma similar to that which preceded the Shah's fall. Khamenei, aware of that history, has relied on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security instruments to suppress dissent. The regime has shut down internet and communications, slowing reporting, while human-rights organizations report that security forces may have killed up to two hundred demonstrators, signaling a choice of bloodshed over concessions.

Read at The New Yorker