"About 20% of global oil supplies have been effectively blocked from transiting the strait of Hormuz since Iran began attacking ships, resulting in a huge jump in oil prices. Militarily, while the United States has the firepower to significantly reduce Iran's capacity to use the strait as leverage, it is unlikely to be able to eliminate the threat entirely."
"For the Iranian government, the purpose of its arsenal of ballistic missiles was to deter any direct aggression, allowing the country to subvert its adversaries through violent proxies without incurring retaliation. That deterrent has failed. The idea that Iran can be attacked whenever its actions displease its opponents is clearly unacceptable, and so the Iranian government wishes to re-establish deterrence by imposing such a cost on the global economy that further attacks are not contemplated."
"Within the US strategic community, there is a fear that if China attempts to seize Taiwan in 2027 the world could find itself in global simultaneous protracted conflict. To this end, the US wishes to remove threats to its global operations beyond the Indo-Pacific, establishing coercive control over Venezuela, eliminating Iran's military capabilities and neutralising a hostile government in Cuba."
US and Israeli military actions against Iran have disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant economic consequences worldwide. While the US possesses military capability to reduce Iran's capacity to leverage the strait, complete elimination of the threat remains unlikely. Resolution requires diplomatic engagement alongside military action. Iran seeks to re-establish deterrence against future attacks by imposing substantial economic costs through strait closure, after its ballistic missile deterrent failed. The US strategic objective extends beyond Iran, aiming to eliminate regional threats to global operations while preparing for potential China-Taiwan conflict in 2027. US goals include coercive control over Venezuela, neutralizing Iran's military capabilities, and establishing a hostile government stance toward Cuba, while managing Russia's nuclear deterrent through diplomatic conditions.
#iran-us-conflict #strait-of-hormuz #oil-supply-disruption #military-strategy #geopolitical-tensions
Read at www.theguardian.com
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