Iran war tests India's multi-alignment diplomacy

"India has long taken pride in doing what few major powers could manage. It bought oil from Iran, built defense ties with Israel, strengthened relations with the US and expanded economic links with the Gulf monarchies, while insisting it would not be drawn into regional camps or formal alliances. The Iran war, however, is pushing that formula to its limits."

"For New Delhi, the Iran conflict is more than an energy crisis unfolding in a distant region. It is a direct challenge to the core assumption behind India's foreign policy in the Middle East, namely that it can maintain its own strategic autonomy while cultivating ties with every major power in the region, irrespective of their rivalries."

"“Strategic autonomy works best in a fluid multipolar order,” Mattoo told DW. “It becomes harder when rival camps demand political loyalty, sanctions compliance, and security alignment all at once,” he added. Mattoo is clear, however, about what breaks first when the pressure peaks."

"“If push comes to shove, India's first instinct will always be to protect economic stability and energy security. No government in New Delhi can afford prolonged oil shocks, shipping disruptions in Hormuz, or domestic inflation spirals,” he said."

India has pursued strategic autonomy in the Middle East by buying Iranian oil, building defense ties with Israel, strengthening relations with the United States, and expanding economic links with Gulf monarchies without joining formal regional camps. The Iran conflict is challenging the assumption that these relationships can coexist despite rivalries. The pressure is increasing as India faces a more unforgiving environment where strategic autonomy works best in a fluid multipolar order. Rival camps can demand political loyalty, sanctions compliance, and security alignment simultaneously. If pressure peaks, India’s priority is protecting economic stability and energy security, avoiding prolonged oil shocks, shipping disruptions through Hormuz, and domestic inflation spirals.

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