Iran says it's not talking to the US. Trump says it is. Markets rallied $1.2T on the ambiguity alone - Silicon Canals

"The most valuable commodity in global markets this week wasn't oil, gold, or semiconductor futures - it was uncertainty, packaged and traded at scale."

"For the Iranian government, publicly engaging with Washington under military threat reads, inside Tehran's institutional logic, as capitulation under duress."

"Both governments, therefore, have institutional incentives to deny formal talks while conducting them."

"The mechanism that resolves this problem is the mediator channel, allowing both sides to technically maintain their public positions while substantive communication flows."

This week, uncertainty has emerged as the most valuable commodity in global markets, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iran relations. Contradictory statements from President Trump and Iran's government highlight the complexities of their diplomatic interactions. Both parties have domestic incentives to deny formal talks while still engaging in communication through mediators. This managed ambiguity allows them to navigate their political landscapes while exploring potential negotiations, creating a significant opportunity for profit in the markets.

Read at Silicon Canals