Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?

China and India are buying more Brazilian crude as Strait of Hormuz disruptions reduce access to Middle East supplies. The US-Israel conflict involving Iran has disrupted energy trade, while Russian supply remains constrained by sanctions. Asian buyers are seeking crude from suppliers viewed as safer and more reliable to reduce exposure to Gulf shipping disruptions. Brazil has emerged as a key beneficiary because it can supply marginal barrels to Asia without the same shipping vulnerabilities. Imports from Brazil reached about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and rose to roughly 1.8 million barrels per day between January and May. Brazil’s production also increased, supporting its growing role in diversifying away from the Gulf.

"The disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia. China and India in particular have increased purchases of Brazilian crude to secure barrels that are not exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions, he added."

"Analysts say Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia's main oil supplier. However, as shipping risks rise in the Gulf amid Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the corresponding naval blockade on Iranian ports by the United States, its oil has become increasingly attractive to refiners seeking to avoid supply shocks."

"Asian countries imported about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Brazil in 2025, according to data supplied to Al Jazeera by trade intelligence firm Kpler. That rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May this year, highlighting Brazil's growing role in Asia's efforts to diversify away from the Gulf."

"Brazil had already been increasing oil production in major offshore developments before tensions escalated in the Middle East. According to Kpler data, Brazil was producing about 3.77 million bpd of oil in 2025. Between January and May, this rose to an average of 4.06 million bpd, with 4.11 million bpd in May."

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