Two distant straits shape global power in 2026: Hormuz is closed by force, while Øresund remains open. Hormuz is 54 kilometers wide at its narrowest point and carries 20% of the world’s seaborne oil. After strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliation, Hormuz was shut by high-end US forces and aircraft on one side and low-cost Iranian mines and missiles on the other. The disruption drove oil to about $120 per barrel, with the IMF calling it the largest supply disruption in history. Oil and fertilizer production were cut due to storage limits, harming East Asia, and worsening food and fertilizer prices in South Asia and Africa. The standoff persists because neither side signals willingness to change positions.
"The Strait of Hormuz is 54 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, with 20% of the world's seaborne oil passing through it. After US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliation, it has been closed, held shut by a combination of high-end US warships and aircraft on one side and large-scale, low-cost Iranian sea mines and missiles on the other. The asymmetry is itself a lesson: a regional power with cheap munitions can deny a waterway against the most advanced navy in the world."
"The consequences arrived quickly with oil passing $120 per barrel, which the IMF called the largest oil supply disruption in history. Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE cut production of both oil and fertilizer because of a lack of available storage and without an ability to export it. East Asia, who gets a majority of its oil from the Middle East, has been badly hurt. The deepest damage, though, is in South Asia and Africa, where it translated into higher fertilizer prices, higher food prices, and empty shelves."
"Iran will not reopen the strait while under military threat. Washington will not pull back while Tehran pursues a nuclear weapon. Both governments accept the global cost of the standoff and neither signals willingness to change their stance. The lesson is that a strait only tens of kilometers wide can do more to"
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