With thousands dead, the Iranian regime may survive these protests but not in its current form | Sanam Vakil

"The protests have exposed both the resilience of Iranian society and the growing brittleness of a political system stubbornly unwilling to reform. It's the scale, spread and momentum of the demonstrations that have been most alarming to the authorities. Protests have erupted across all provinces in the country, reaching more than 180 towns and cities, cutting across class, ethnic and regional lines."

"The state's response underscores how seriously it views the threat. To disrupt coordination and prevent images of repression from circulating globally, the country has been placed under an unprecedented total communication and internet blackout. At the same time, the regime has deployed its full coercive apparatus. In the absence of full access to news and information, human rights organisations estimate that more than 6,000 people could have been killed, with thousands more arrested, injured or disappeared into Iran's opaque detention system."

"Yet, despite continued violence, protesters have shown courage and determination, seeking to sustain momentum in the face of reported massacres, live ammunition, street clashes, mass arrests and intimidation. The movement remains largely leaderless, which is both a strength and a constraint. It makes the protests harder to dismantle, but it also limits the ability to organise, or chart a clear political pathway forward."

Protests began over a collapsing currency and rising inflation and rapidly evolved into one of the most destabilising episodes of unrest in years. Demonstrations have spread across all provinces, reaching more than 180 towns and cities and cutting across class, ethnic and regional lines. Slogans have turned openly anti-regime and directly challenge Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the wider establishment. The state imposed an unprecedented total communication and internet blackout and deployed its full coercive apparatus. Human rights organisations estimate more than 6,000 people could have been killed, with thousands more arrested, injured or disappeared. The movement remains largely leaderless, complicating organisation and political direction.

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