"Iraq fell in twenty-one days in 2003, but Saddam Hussein was running a hollow state. His military had been gutted by a decade of sanctions, the 1991 Gulf War, and the no-fly zones. There was no grassroots ideological loyalty to the man - people obeyed out of fear, not faith. The moment the fear lifted, the structure dissolved."
"Libya was a one-man personality cult held together by oil money and tribal patronage with no real institutional military and no ideology beyond Gaddafi himself. Remove the man and there was nothing underneath. The result wasn't a democracy. It's been a failed state ever since."
"The Islamic Republic isn't just a government. It's a theocratic revolutionary project that has spent nearly forty-seven years fusing religion, nationalism, and anti-imperialism into a single identity. For tens of millions of Iranians, particularly the rural poor, the deeply religious, and the Revolutionary Guard apparatus, the regime isn't just who's in power. It's who they are."
Iraq and Libya exemplify failed regime change efforts, where military success did not translate into political stability. Iraq's military collapse was due to a hollow state, while Libya's regime relied on a personality cult. In contrast, Iran's regime is ideologically entrenched, combining religion and nationalism, making it resistant to external military intervention. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a crucial role in maintaining this ideological commitment among the populace, complicating any potential regime change efforts.
Read at The Cipher Brief
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]