Why Iran is not repeating 1979

"The nature of power in Tehran today is very different from what it was in the 1970s. Iran is living through one of the most dangerous moments in its post-revolutionary history. Nationwide protests have become sustained rather than episodic. As a new wave of unrest has spread across the country, violence has intensified. The true death toll cannot be verified yet."

"These events have revived a familiar question: Is Iran heading towards another 1979? The temptation to rely on this analogy is understandable. Images of mass mobilisation and rapidly recurring protests evoke memories of the final months of the shah's rule. Yet the comparison is ultimately misleading. The success of the 1979 revolution cannot be explained solely by mass mobilisation. Instead, it was the convergence of coordinated opposition under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and, more decisively, the ruling elites' inability to effectively repress dissent that ensured its triumph."

"Apart from SAVAK, the shah's central intelligence organisation, the police and gendarmerie were tasked with maintaining social order while the Iranian army focused on territorial defence rather than political repression. When the shah left the country, some segments of the police stopped their repressive tactics and cooperated with protesters to maintain public order while senior military commanders hesitated, prioritised self-preservation and ultimately abandoned the monarchy."

Power structures in Tehran today differ markedly from the 1970s. Iran is experiencing one of the most dangerous post-revolutionary moments with sustained nationwide protests and intensified violence. The true death toll remains unverified. The 1979 revolution succeeded not solely because of mass mobilisation but because coordinated opposition under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini converged and ruling elites failed to repress dissent effectively. Mohammad Reza Shah's illness and indecision undermined leadership and he left the country twice amid upheaval. The shah's security forces were fragmented, with police and gendarmerie focused on order while the army prioritised territorial defence, lacking ideological vetting and drawing diverse personnel. The situation today is fundamentally different.

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