Why an Unmanned Mission May be Most Effective in Venezuela

"OPINION - Wars are increasingly fought by unconventional means. A recent example is Ukrainian insertion of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to attack Russian airfields, launched from civilian outfitted trucks. The Israeli pager attacks are another example of leveraging unconventional means to achieve an outsized effect. Both examples demonstrate that unconventional methods can not only disrupt enemy forces and destroy key objectives, but also achieve tremendous psychological effects and by saturating the airspace, limit an adversaries ability to mount offensive operations."

"While the U.S. continues a conventional military buildup off the coast of Venezuela, the lessons from the Ukrainian and Israeli conflicts may be prescient: the US can achieve most of our policy objectives with limited or no ground forces deployment into Venezuela. The authors assume the current U.S. administration's objectives are centered on regime change without conventional warfare. Venezuelan forces may be well-prepared for guerilla warfare."

"Reports are circulating that Russian "advisors" have been dispatched to Venezuela, and it is likely that the Venezuelan army is incorporating Russia's lessons from Ukraine into their preparation. American forces meeting a small, well-prepared drone force could lead to unacceptable casualties, a prolonged conflict, unnecessary escalation, and international embarrassment. We suggest, therefore, that if intervention in Venezuela is forthcoming, the U.S. should adopt a strategy centered on unmanned systems."

Wars increasingly use unconventional means such as UAS and civilian-launched drone attacks to disrupt forces, destroy key objectives, and create psychological effects by saturating airspace. Ukrainian UAS attacks and Israeli pager attacks exemplify how unconventional methods limit adversary offensive operations. The U.S. military buildup off Venezuela may be unnecessary if policy goals emphasize regime change without conventional warfare. Venezuelan forces may be prepared for guerrilla warfare and may incorporate Russian lessons from Ukraine, with Russian advisors present. Direct confrontation with well-prepared drone forces could produce unacceptable casualties, prolonged conflict, escalation, and international embarrassment. A strategy centered on unmanned aerial and ground systems could weaken Maduro’s internal support and hasten favorable conditions for negotiated outcomes.

Read at The Cipher Brief