"In this particular wager, Polymarket was supposed to pay out if "the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela," a determination to be made by "a consensus of credible sources," the New York Times reported. To those who wagered on such an outcome, the events of January 3rd were proof positive that an invasion had taken place."
""This market refers to US military operations intended to establish control," the note declares. "President Trump's statement that they will 'run' Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.""
""Pretty sure this should be yes after Trump said approximately 20 times in his press conference that the US now controls Venezuela," groused a bettor with $1,876 wagered on a US invasion of Venezuela by March 31st. "We are going to run the country," another user exclaimed."
Nearly a week after US strikes bombarded Venezuela during the kidnapping of its president Nicolás Maduro, Polymarket is refusing to pay out users who gambled on an invasion. Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users bet on real-world outcomes, including territorial control. The wager would pay if the United States commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela, as determined by a consensus of credible sources. Many bettors regarded the January 3rd attacks as satisfying that threshold. Polymarket issued a statement narrowing the payout criteria and rejecting characterization of the capture mission as an invasion. Bettors accused the platform of changing rules and manipulating the market, and some referenced possible Department of Justice scrutiny. The attacks have reportedly killed at least 100 people.
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