"Half the world is speculating about the outcome in Venezuela, but no one can say for sure what it will be. For some, the country is on the cusp of a historic opportunity. For others, it's heading toward catastrophe. And for many more, it's navigating a territory of extremes where every nuance is seen as treason. The opposition has reached this point exhausted and fractured after so many attempts at change."
"Managing expectations has, in fact, been the great curse of the Venezuelan opposition. Time and again, it believed it was on the verge of change. In 2002, when Hugo Chavez briefly fell. In 2004, with the recall referendum. In several regional elections. In the presidential elections of 2012 and 2013. In the parliamentary victory of 2015. In the protests of 2017. In 2019, during the tumultuous period of Juan Guaido's interim government. Or in the elections of July last year, when Nicolas Maduro proclaimed himself the winner"
Global speculation surrounds Venezuela's uncertain outcome, with perspectives ranging from imminent historic opportunity to impending catastrophe. Internal polarization has turned nuances into accusations of treason. The opposition stands exhausted and fractured after repeated failed thresholds—2002, 2004, multiple regional contests, the 2012 and 2013 presidential races, the 2015 parliamentary victory, 2017 protests, 2019 interim government efforts, and recent contested elections. Repeated disappointments reflect a chronic mismanagement of expectations and a tendency to underestimate the Chavista power structure, discipline, interest networks, and capacity for repression and mobilization. Maria Corina Machado has risen as a leading, uncompromising figure, advocating an all-in strategy and predicting a peaceful transition.
Read at english.elpais.com
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