Venezuela's Grim Prospect

"For many Venezuelans, this is a disorienting moment. For a quarter century, our government has been using the threat of an American military attack to justify more and more authoritarian control over the country. Venezuelans got accustomed to dismissing it all as noise, just a pretext the dictatorship employed to stamp out civil rights. Suddenly, it's not just noise. President Donald Trump is very visibly preparing to do what Nicolás Maduro spent decades swearing the Americans would one day do:"

"The United States has been bombing Venezuelan fast boats, which it alleges are ferrying drugs north, while massing naval forces in the Caribbean. Trump has vacillated between hinting that air strikes inside Venezuela will be next and saying that he doubts the U.S. will go to war with Venezuela. The administration keeps portraying its actions as part of a counternarcotics operation-ostensibly the first such operation in history to require the use of an aircraft carrier."

"Secretary of State Marco Rubio-a Cold War-style anti-Communist-describes Maduro as the leader of a designated narco-terrorist organization, rather than a government, leading many to conclude that the endgame here is to depose him. Perhaps the idea is to use military pressure to push somebody within the Venezuelan security apparatus to move against Maduro. Even if such a plan succeeds-which is very doubtful-it is likelier to deliver Venezuela to a different style of military dictatorship than it is to bring a return to democracy."

Venezuelans face a possible U.S. military intervention after decades of threats used to justify authoritarian control. The United States has bombed Venezuelan fast boats, assembled naval forces in the Caribbean, and signaled possible air strikes while framing operations as counternarcotics. The White House has not deployed sufficient ground forces for a full invasion, suggesting reliance on air power. Designating Maduro as a narco-terrorist leader raises the prospect of using military pressure to induce defections within the security apparatus. Even if Maduro is deposed, coercive removal is likelier to produce a military authoritarian regime than restore democracy, causing deep fear and disorientation.

Read at The Atlantic