U.S. intelligence says Iran's regime is consolidating power

"The United States and Israel have significantly degraded Iran's missile capability and navy, removed the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and wiped out scores of top military and intelligence leaders. But the war's costs are mounting - at least $12 billion so far and 13 U.S. troops killed. Iran's viselike grip on the Strait of Hormuz has slowed shipping traffic to a trickle, creating a historic oil disruption."

"U.S. intelligence assessments issued since the war began predict Iran's regime will remain intact and possibly even emboldened, believing it stood up to Trump and survived, according to two people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity."

"One European official said the likeliest postwar scenario is a 'rump IRGC regime' in Tehran that will retain some nuclear and missile capability as well as the support of regional proxies, though the regime will be 'degraded enough that we're in a better place than we were.'"

After more than two weeks of intensive airstrikes, U.S. and Israeli forces have significantly degraded Iran's missile capability, navy, and eliminated numerous top military and intelligence leaders. However, the conflict has cost at least $12 billion and 13 U.S. troops' lives, while Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global shipping and oil markets. U.S. intelligence assessments predict Iran's regime will remain intact and potentially emboldened, believing it survived confrontation with the Trump administration. Western officials see little prospect for near-term regime change or democratic transition. The likely postwar scenario involves a weakened but surviving Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-dominated government retaining some nuclear and missile capabilities and regional proxy support.

Read at The Washington Post