"The margin for error has shrunk since 2016-2020. It would now take less of a spark for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties," said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University.
"Trump introduces a level of personal unpredictability compared to Biden. But there is no reason to expect any major changes to US policies on this front," said Gregory Poling, director of Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Tensions are so high that a skirmish could escalate into a regional war," one analyst told BI, highlighting the increased risks in the South China Sea.
"Since 2016, China has expanded its presence in the region, growing more willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally the US is treaty-bound to defend," providing context for current US-China relations.
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