"OPINION - The recent release of President Trump's new National Security Strategy (NSS), with its emphasis on 'the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,' and its resultant challenges, such as border security, migration, and narcotics trafficking, offer us an opportunity to closely examine leaders to watch in 2026. While previous similar columns in The Cipher Brief by this author had focused on adversaries such as Russia's Putin, China's Xi, North Korea's Kim, and Iran's Supreme Leader, today's evolving geopolitical landscape (as described in the new NSS) suggests looking more closely at the motivations and leadership style of Venezuela's adversary President Nicolas Maduro, Russia's diplomatic emissary Kirill Dmitriev, and the deeply influential, newly elected Pope Leo XIV. And the gray zone is alive and well --- there are lots of 'black swans' flying around!"
"The influence of Pope Leo XIV, who has already shown himself to be a transformational Pope, is easily misunderstood. When Stalin famously quipped, "How many divisions does the Pope have," today's answer would be, 1.4 billion. Observers forget that the Vatican has one of the world's oldest and formidable diplomatic and intelligence services. Several weeks ago, when Pope Leo visited the headquarters of the Italian Intelligence Service, he spoke eloquently, stating that intelligence professionals are entrusted with "the serious responsibility of constantly monitoring the dangers that may threaten the life of the Nation, in order above all to contribute to the protection of peace.""
"Pope Leo - whose first words to the flock upon his appointment to the Papacy were "Peace be with you," has shown himself to be an adept diplomat. American-born, raised, and educated, he then spent several decades in Peru, as well as 20+ years in Rome. Fluent in English, Spanish, and Italian, he is a true citizen of, and Pope for, this world."
President Trump's new National Security Strategy emphasizes a 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' and highlights border security, migration, and narcotics trafficking as central challenges. The strategy points to leaders to watch in 2026, including Venezuela's adversary President Nicolas Maduro, Russia's diplomatic emissary Kirill Dmitriev, and the newly elected Pope Leo XIV. The gray zone remains active and unpredictable, with numerous 'black swans.' Pope Leo XIV commands influence over 1.4 billion and presides over one of the world's oldest diplomatic and intelligence services. He visited the Italian Intelligence Service, urging intelligence professionals to monitor dangers to protect peace. He is American-born, spent decades in Peru and over 20 years in Rome, and is fluent in English, Spanish, and Italian.
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