The more generous U.S. ceasefire terms are, the more suspicious Iran becomes they're a ruse for another attack, expert says | Fortune

Iran and the U.S. are considering an extension of a ceasefire with terms that include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing ships to pass without paying tolls. In return, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and provide sanctions relief so Iran can sell oil openly. The most contentious issues must be resolved during a 60-day window, including Iran’s uranium and the U.S. permanently ending sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets estimated at $25 billion. The U.S. would maintain its military presence in the region and withdraw only after a final deal is reached. Critics argue that easing sanctions on oil exports reduces incentives for nuclear agreement and limits the ability to reimpose sanctions without major risk.

"One of the problems with this approach and deciding that you will just deal with the nuclear issue later is that waiving sanctions on Iranian oil exports now will decrease, not increase, Iran's motivation for reaching a nuclear agreement. "Also, by tying those sanctions to the Strait, you've lost your ability to reimpose them without a huge risk that Iran retakes control of the waterway.""

"The outlines of a deal include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and letting ships pass without paying tolls, sources told Axios. In return, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and provide some sanctions relief, allowing let Tehran to sell oil openly. But the most contentious issues must be settled during a 60-day window for talks. That includes Iran's uranium as well as the U.S. permanently ending sanctions and releasing Iran's frozen assets abroad, estimated at $25 billion."

"The U.S. would also maintain its military presence in the region and only withdraw once a final deal is reached, Axios said. But Trump would still give up significant leverage. Reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to extending their ceasefire have shocked some Republicans, who fear Trump is poised to give away too much."

"Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that effectively recognizes Tehran's ability to control the strait, saying it would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and eventually become a "nightmare" for Israel. Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said a 60-day extension would be a disaster and that "Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!" Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also piled on."

Read at Fortune