The Islamic Republic Will Not Last

"Under the cover of a total internet shutdown that has now lasted more than 100 hours, Iran's security forces have unleashed bone-chilling brutality on protesters, killing at least 2,000 people, according to Iranian officials. Rather than hiding its crimes, the regime has broadcast footage from a morgue on state television. Corpses overflowed the facility, where relatives searched for their loved ones. The news anchor casually declared that the bodies were mostly those of "ordinary people.""

"In this wave of protests, for the first time, thousands of Iranians chanted slogans in support of an opposition leader abroad seeking to dismantle the regime. Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of the former shah, has declared himself ready to lead the transition away from the Islamic Republic. His call for protesters to come out last Thursday and Friday (Iran's weekend) helped grow the numbers to levels probably unseen since 2009."

"Pahlavi doesn't appear to have a coherent follow-up plan, however. His subsequent calls for workers' strikes in strategic sectors weren't answered on any scale. He claims to have the loyalty of thousands of defectors in the security forces, but the evidence for this has not emerged. And although he enjoys significant support on the Iranian street, he still seems to lack the type of organized on-the-ground networks necessary for the long haul."

Iranian security forces have killed at least 2,000 protesters amid a total internet shutdown lasting more than 100 hours. State television broadcast morgue footage showing overflowing corpses and relatives searching for loved ones. Mass protests recurred in 2009-2010, 2017-18, 2019-20, and 2022-23 but repeatedly failed to produce organized leadership posing a clear alternative to the regime. Thousands chanted in support of Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of the former shah, who declared readiness to lead a transition. Pahlavi's follow-up lacked coherence: strike calls went largely unanswered, claims of security-force defections remain unverified, and organized on-the-ground networks are still missing. Pahlavi has not unified opposition factions.

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