The Iran war could drag into 2027, analyst warns. The economic fallout is just getting started | Fortune
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The Iran war could drag into 2027, analyst warns. The economic fallout is just getting started | Fortune
"The Middle East War now appears to be broadening and deepening. We have 25% confidence that it's concluded by the end of May, 45% that it's settled in the fall of 2026, and 35% that it extends into 2027."
"An escalatory spiral that emerged with strikes on non-military targets does not appear to be contained."
"The average price of gasoline is now $3.98 per gallon, up from $2.98 a month ago. That will cut into consumer spending elsewhere."
"Import prices shot up 1.3% in February, the largest month-over-month increase since March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
President Trump predicts a six-week duration for the Iran war, but analysts suggest it could extend to six months or longer. The conflict has escalated, involving U.S. forces in Iraq and potentially affecting Yemen. Analysts express uncertainty about the war's conclusion, with varying probabilities for its duration. The ongoing conflict is already impacting gas prices and inflation, with significant increases noted. A prolonged war could further strain economic activity and consumer spending, exacerbating inflationary pressures.
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