The Guardian view on Trump's raid in Caracas: oil matters, but it's not the whole story | Editorial
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The Guardian view on Trump's raid in Caracas: oil matters, but it's not the whole story | Editorial
"A better way to think about Venezuela is that oil was necessary but not sufficient. The presence of vast reserves made Mr Trump's interest understandable if Venezuela's main export was bananas this would not have happened. But oil alone cannot explain the timing or scale of the move. Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy as well as expensive and slow to bring online; it will not immediately transform US energy systems, nor rescue refineries that have already adapted to years without it."
"Oil has been Venezuela's curse as well as its blessing. Built on oil rents since the 1920s, Venezuela's booms overvalued its currency and made it import-dependent. A political pact in the 1960s that divided hydrocarbon spoils according to vote share amplified the damage, leaving Caracas dangerously exposed when oil prices collapsed in the early 1990s. That shock hastened a failed coup led by a young military officer, Hugo Chavez. Six years later, Chavez was elected president, pledging to deploy oil wealth to reduce poverty."
Nicolas Maduro was illegally abducted by US forces. Oil was necessary but not sufficient: vast, extra-heavy reserves made Venezuela strategically attractive but cannot immediately transform US energy systems or restore refineries. Oil functioned as the prize around which future profits for US firms, modest downward pressure on prices, weakening Chinese influence, pressure on Cuba, and electoral signalling in Florida cohered. Decades of oil rents overvalued the currency and increased import dependence. A 1960s pact allocating hydrocarbon spoils amplified vulnerability. The early-1990s price collapse precipitated political crisis and Hugo Chávez's rise; a 2002 coup briefly toppled Chávez but mass protests restored him.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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