According to last permitted polling before the vote, the China-skeptic incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Vice-President William Lai holds a slender lead over the more Beijing-friendly Nationalists, or KMT, with the upstart centrist Taiwan People's Party (TPP) in third place.
Certainly, Saturday's vote will set the course of cross-strait ties for at least the next four years. The previous two terms of DPP government have witnessed a marked deterioration of relations between Taipei and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has branded Lai a troublemaker whose election would only bring risks of fierce war.
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