Speculation surrounded Max Verstappen leaving Red Bull amid Red Bull's struggles and doubts about the Ford partnership. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff pursued Verstappen as an opportunity to recruit him while Red Bull faltered. A contract clause would have allowed Verstappen to leave only if he finished fourth rather than third in the drivers' championship, and his championship position going into the break prevented that exit. Even if the clause had been triggered, Verstappen likely would have waited to see the competitive order under new regulations. The departure possibility could resurface if Red Bull is significantly off pace next season.
As with most sports, Formula 1 is increasingly a sport about hot takes and bold predictions. ESPN made its own ahead of the 2025 season, a year that started amid a huge wave of excitement around the unpredictable nature of the upcoming championship. The August break is always a good chance to reassess and take stock of where F1 is, so how did we do? Here's a look at our bold predictions, and why they have or haven't quite worked out right just yet.
This one was wrong, but we were on the right lines. Verstappen's future dominated much of the run-in to the summer break for the exact reason we outlined: Mercedes boss Toto Wolff spied an opportunity to wrestle the Dutchman away from Red Bull as the team struggled. That outcome for 2026 was never as likely as some made out, and Verstappen's championship position going into the break ruled it out entirely;
a clause in his contract would have allowed him to walk away from the team had he been fourth, not third, in the drivers' championship at this point in the season. Even had he triggered that clause, it's unlikely he would have tied himself down to a team without seeing the competitive order next season, when new rules will effectively make everything a clean slate.
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