"In the early hours of 13 June, more than 200 Israeli fighter jets began pummeling Iran with bombs, lighting up the Tehran skyline and initiating a 12-day war that would leave hundreds dead. But for one user of the prediction market Polymarket, it was their lucky day. In the 24 hours before the strike occurred, they had bet tens of thousands of dollars on yes on the market Israel military action against Iran by Friday? when the prospect still seemed unlikely and odds were hovering at about 10%. After the strike, Polymarket declared that military action had been taken, and paid the user $128,000 for their lucky wager."
"Polymarket is an online platform where people can bet on just about anything, from what the most-streamed song on Spotify will be to how many times Donald Trump will say terrible that day. Under Joe Biden, the unregulated site was banned in the United States, although it could be accessed with a VPN. Now, over $100m worth of bets are now placed on Polymarket each day. The user who had placed the bet was new to Polymarket."
"Since then they have lodged five bets on similar markets like, Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July? and Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? All have been successful, making further profits of more than $28,000. The Guardian's analysis of blockchain data traced the wallet to an X account with its location set to Beit Ha'shita, a kibbutz in northern Israel. The user recently transferred their bets to two other accounts, data shows, potentially to avoid detection. There, they currently have 10 live bets relating to Israel's military strategy. The X user behind the account could not be reached for comment but Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency have opened an investigation into the user, officials said last Thursday."
On 13 June, Israeli fighter jets struck Iran, beginning a 12-day conflict with hundreds killed. A Polymarket user placed tens of thousands of dollars on a market predicting Israeli military action against Iran when odds were about 10% and was paid $128,000 after the platform declared action taken. The user, new to Polymarket, later placed five similar successful bets, earning over $28,000 more. Blockchain analysis linked the betting wallet to an X account located in Beit Ha'shita in northern Israel. The user transferred bets to other accounts and now holds ten live related bets. Israeli authorities opened an investigation. Polymarket operates unregulated, is banned in the U.S., and handles over $100m in bets daily.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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