"The U.S. decision to work with those still in control was logical even if disappointing to some in the democratic opposition which, after all, won the presidential election overwhelmingly in late July of 2024. The opposition's base of support dwarfs that of the regime but the military, intelligence services and police are all still loyal to the regime - at least for the time being."
"President Trump himself has announced his intention to persuade the U.S. private sector to return to Venezuela to rebuild the sector. Oil production in Venezuela has declined by two thirds since Hugo Chavez, Maduro's predecessor, was elected in 1998. This unprecedented decline was due to incompetent management, undercapitalization and corruption. Had Chevron not opted to stay in the country under difficult circumstances, the production numbers would look even worse. Resurrecting the oil sector will take time, money and expertise."
Nicolas Maduro and his wife are gone but elements of the regime remain in place, creating relief and apprehension among Venezuelans. The U.S. seeks cooperation from interim president Delcy Rodriguez despite uncertainty about her reliability. The opposition won the July 2024 election overwhelmingly but the military, intelligence services and police remain loyal to the regime for now. U.S. cooperation with regime elements aims to implement plans without additional ground forces. The Trump administration plans to revive the oil sector and attract U.S. companies, but production collapsed due to mismanagement, undercapitalization and corruption, and rebuilding will require security, capital and expertise.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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