Nine linked Polymarket accounts netted more than $2.4 million by placing nearly all wagers on the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran. Blockchain analytics reported over 80 bets with a 98% win rate, including wagers tied to specific dates such as the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement. More than $1 billion has been staked on military outcomes, and the activity has spilled into commodities, including an $800 million drop in oil futures. Regulators and investigators are concerned that insiders with access to classified information may be exploiting anonymous trading. Polymarket says it uses AI surveillance, blockchain forensics, and strict integrity rules to prevent insider trading and manipulation.
"Nine linked accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by wagering almost exclusively on the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran, raising alarms among analysts who say the pattern strongly suggests insider trading. Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, said the accounts placed more than 80 bets with a 98% win rate, including wagers on the dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire. This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far, said Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps' cofounder and CEO. Luck alone cannot explain those numbers."
"According to a CBS report, more than $1 billion has been staked on military outcomes alone. However, the rise has also drawn scrutiny from regulators and investigators concerned that insiders with access to classified information may be exploiting the platforms. This is a new kind of insider trading, said Rob Schwartz, a partner at Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) official. While Polymarket's transactions are publicly visible, traders' identities remain anonymous."
"Polymarket said it has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insidertrading rules, AIpowered surveillance and blockchain forensics. The company said its enhanced market integrity rules prohibit insider trading, market manipulation and disruptive practices across both its decentralized platform and its CFTCregulated U.S. exchange. Polymarket said it partners with worldclass data analytics firms to conduct realtime trade surveillance a"
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